What is the ENSO prediction for the rest of the year?

Uncertainty remains over whether La Niña may transition to ENSO-neutral during the summer, with forecasters predicting a 52% chance of La Niña and a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. After this season, the forecast is for renewed cooling, with La Niña favored during the fall and early winter.

What is the current ENSO status?

The most recent ONI value (March – May 2022) is -1.1ºC. Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST. v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)].

Will El Nino return in 2022?

Most current climate model predictions expect the negative Niño-3.4 anomaly will weaken over the summer and strengthen in the fall. The range of forecasts for departures from average temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific in 2022 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME).

Is El Niño coming 2023?

There is less certainty going into Fall, but more members go for the negative phase. The ENSO forecast from the United States CFSv2 is similar. It shows the current cooling to simply continue deep into 2022. It sustains the cold anomalies over Summer, and into the 2022/2023 cold season.

Is 2020 El Niño year?

Previous La Ninas occurred during the winter of 2020-2021 and 2017-2018, and an El Nino developed in 2018-2019. When neither climate pattern is present, ENSO is neutral and does not influence global climate patterns. Learn more: Meet a NOAA scientist behind the La Nina forecast.

Will there be an El Niño in 2022-23?

According to NOAA’s monthly diagnostic discussion released Thursday, there’s a roughly 60% chance La Niña could hang around through February. The blue bars indicate the chance of La Niña for each three-month period into winter 2022-23, according to this forecast from early May 2022.

Is 2022 a La Niña year?

There’s an increasing chance of a third straight La Niña fall and winter in 2022-23. This “triple-dip” La Niña hasn’t happened since 2000. This could have impacts on hurricane season, and the expansive western and southern drought.

Are we in La Niña or El Niño 2022?

Based on all the available data, an official La Nina advisory is in effect, as explained in the statement by the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: “La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the Fall.